Historical and Comparative Context
In the first year after the baseline of 2012-13, this metric moved away from the target, rising to 38.1% in 2013-14. Then a steady pattern of reduction commenced in 2014-15. The 2016-17 figure was the first to fall back below the baseline level, with a further reduction occurring in 2017-18 through 2019-2020. The 2020-21 figure rose to 35% due to COVID-19 pandemic and fell back towards trend at 31.9% in 2021-22.
Looking back over the longer term, Nova Scotia has not had a net debt to GDP ratio at or below the target figure since 1991-92. After peaking in 1999-00 at 47.1%, there was generally steady progress in reducing the ratio until the financial calamity of 2008-09. From that point until the baseline year, the figure oscillated in the 35%-37% range.
RBC’s Canadian Federal and Provincial Fiscal Tables document (last updated in March 2023) provides debt-to-GDP time series for all provinces, taken from the relevant governments’ own fiscal publications.
Looking at the most recent actuals (2021-22), across the ten provinces the top spot goes to Alberta with a figure of 15.2%, while the highest (worst) ratio belongs to Newfoundland and Labrador at 43.2%. Nova Scotia ranks sixth among the provinces, up from the seventh spot in the 2012-13 baseline year.
Looking at the change from the baseline year to the most recent actual figures, Nova Scotia had the fourth-best record with an improvement of 4.9 percentage points. Quebec led the way with a drop of 14.9 percentage points; British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island also posted decreases. The worst record went to Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta.
CHANGES TO THE INDICATOR, BASELINE, OR TARGET:
- No changes were made to the indicator or target; the 2012-13 baseline figure was amended due to revisions in historical nominal GDP data. Other figures have been updated due to the availability of new data.