Current Situation
Since 2014 Nova Scotia had been on a steady trend of reductions in its net debt to GDP ratio except 2020-2021 due to COVID-19. The province reported a net debt-GDP ratio of 31.9% for 2021-22 in the March 2023 Budget. This reflects a 4.9 percentage point decline from the baseline of 36.8%. The forecasts in that budget showed the ratio rising to 32.5% in 2022-23 and then rising every year out to 2026-27, reaching 36.2% at that time.
| Fiscal year | Actual | Forecast/Projection | OneNS Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | 16.70% | 30.00% | |
| 1983 | 19.90% | 30.00% | |
| 1984 | 21.40% | 30.00% | |
| 1985 | 23.00% | 30.00% | |
| 1986 | 25.00% | 30.00% | |
| 1987 | 24.80% | 30.00% | |
| 1988 | 24.80% | 30.00% | |
| 1989 | 24.70% | 30.00% | |
| 1990 | 26.10% | 30.00% | |
| 1991 | 26.80% | 30.00% | |
| 1992 | 29.60% | 30.00% | |
| 1993 | 38.70% | 30.00% | |
| 1994 | 42.80% | 30.00% | |
| 1995 | 44.10% | 30.00% | |
| 1996 | 43.90% | 30.00% | |
| 1997 | 45.50% | 30.00% | |
| 1998 | 44.20% | 30.00% | |
| 1999 | 46.70% | 30.00% | |
| 2000 | 47.10% | 30.00% | |
| 2001 | 44.50% | 30.00% | |
| 2002 | 45.30% | 30.00% | |
| 2003 | 43.50% | 30.00% | |
| 2004 | 41.30% | 30.00% | |
| 2005 | 39.80% | 30.00% | |
| 2006 | 38.00% | 30.00% | |
| 2007 | 37.70% | 30.00% | |
| 2008 | 35.60% | 30.00% | |
| 2009 | 36.20% | 30.00% | |
| 2010 | 37.30% | 30.00% | |
| 2011 | 34.70% | 30.00% | |
| 2012 | 35.50% | 30.00% | |
| 2013 | 36.80% | 30.00% | |
| 2014 | 38.10% | 30.00% | |
| 2015 | 37.70% | 30.00% | |
| 2016 | 37.00% | 30.00% | |
| 2017 | 36.00% | 30.00% | |
| 2018 | 34.60% | 30.00% | |
| 2019 | 33.40% | 30.00% | |
| 2020 | 32.50% | 30.00% | |
| 2021 | 35.00% | 30.00% | |
| 2022 | 31.90% | 30.00% | |
| 2023 | 32.50% | 30.00% | |
| 2024 | 33.60% | 30.00% | |
| 2025 | 34.80% | 30.00% | |
| 2026 | 35.80% | 30.00% | |
| 2027 | 36.20% | 30.00% |
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Note: Projections are from Budget 2023-24.
What This Means
This data point measures the dollar value of the provincial government's debt relative to the size of the province’s GDP. It is expressed in this ratio because the size of the GDP is a common measure of the province's tax base from which to draw revenue, and thus a measure of its ability to pay down the debt.
Deep Dive
Read more detailed information about this goal by clicking 'Deep Dive'